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Optical transceiver outlook upgraded by US broker, forecasting 1.6T and 3.2T ramps driven by AI server and data center expansion

Sunday, December 28, 2025 at 11:32 PM

A US broker upgraded its outlook on optical transceivers, anticipating 800G as the mainstream for large data centers, 1.6T to ramp significantly in 2025, and 3.2T to begin in 2026. The report suggests that ASIC AI server growth will drive volume and quality due to increased networking reliance to offset single-chip compute limitations. Google and Meta are expanding their high-speed (800G+) deployments, with Google moving to 1.6T and Meta using more transceivers per ASIC than GPU servers. Nvidia's roadmap includes 400G and 800G for GB200, 800G and 1.6T for GB300, and expected upgrades to 1.6T/3.2T for Rubin/Rubin Ultra. The broker maintains a positive view on LandMark, VPEC, InnoLight, Optolink, TFC, and Ruijie Networks.

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