Rumor

Memory super-cycle and T-Glass shortages drive BT substrate price hikes through 2026

Friday, December 5, 2025 at 03:34 AM

A memory super-cycle and shortages of T-Glass fiber are driving a supply crunch in BT substrates, leading to price increases of 3-10% per quarter. Taiwan manufacturers like Kinsus and Nanya PCB have secured emergency orders and are signing long-term agreements with customers to ensure capacity through 2026. Nittobo is reportedly expanding capacity to address the glass fiber bottleneck, while Kinsus remains the largest supplier for memory-specific BT substrates.

Context

The global memory supercycle is colliding with a severe shortage of T-Glass fiberglass fabric, a critical upstream material controlled largely by Japan’s Nitto Boseki. This bottleneck has significantly extended lead times for ABF and BT substrates, forcing major customers to sign long-term supply agreements to secure capacity through 2025. While BT substrates previously suffered from weak smartphone demand, the surge in AI-driven packaging and memory requirements has flipped the market into a deficit. Consequently, Taiwan’s IC substrate leaders are implementing quarterly price hikes of 3–5% to 10%, a trend expected to bolster margins through Q1 2026. Kinsus is the primary beneficiary of this squeeze, with memory-related BT substrates accounting for 36% of its revenue, followed by Nan Ya PCB at 30–35%. In contrast, Unimicron remains less exposed to the memory boom, with only 13% revenue contribution from this segment. Investors should anticipate supply tightness to persist until Q2 2026, with a full resolution not expected until 2027 when new material capacity finally aligns with AI and memory demand.

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