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ASM International expects China revenue growth in 2026 due to export control pause
Thursday, March 5, 2026 at 02:40 PM
ASM International (ASMI) has revised its 2026 revenue outlook for the Chinese market, now anticipating growth rather than a double-digit decline. This shift contrasts with other wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) peers who expect flat or declining sales in China. The updated guidance is attributed to a temporary stabilization in export control regulations.
Context
Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASM International (ASMI) has raised its 2026 revenue forecast, projecting growth in the Chinese market. This outlook contrasts with many of its wafer fab equipment (WFE) peers, such as Applied Materials, who have signaled flat or declining sales in the region due to geopolitical headwinds. The upward revision is driven by a perceived pause in export controls and a rebound in demand from Chinese customers, leading ASMI to anticipate first-quarter 2026 revenue of approximately €830 million ($962 million).
This shift follows a strong 2025 performance where ASMI achieved record annual revenue of €3.2 billion and a record gross profit margin of 51.8%. While China has introduced mandates requiring domestic chipmakers to use at least 50% locally-made equipment, ASMI remains well-positioned due to its dominance in Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD) and epitaxy tools. These technologies are critical for 2nm Gate-All-Around (GAA) nodes and High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), where domestic Chinese alternatives are not yet fully available.
Sources (10)
ASML expects impact of updated export restrictions to fall within outlook for 2025ASM International expects revenue to rise over next few quarters on China sales rebound | ReutersASM International Shares Rise on Strong Results, GuidanceASM reports Q4 and full-year 2025 resultsASM rises after posting Q4 beat, strong 2026 outlook By Investing.comASM international lifts 2026 forecast on China sales reboundChina mandates 50% domestic equipment for chipmakersComments from SEMI on the Advance ...
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