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Qualcomm expects modem share in Apple iPhone 18 to reach 20 percent before zeroing out for iPhone 19
Wednesday, January 7, 2026 at 09:28 AM
Qualcomm management has reiterated guidance regarding its modem supply relationship with Apple, projecting a 20% share for the iPhone 18 series followed by a total phase-out to 0% for the iPhone 19.
Context
Qualcomm is formalizing its final transition away from Apple, projecting its modem share will drop from 20% for the iPhone 18 to 0% by the iPhone 19 launch. This confirms the long-anticipated conclusion of a multi-billion dollar revenue stream as Apple successfully pivots toward internal modem hardware. To mitigate this impact, Qualcomm has redirected significant capital into its automotive semiconductor business and is intensifying its partnership with Samsung to maintain its dominance in the premium Android market.
The company is specifically targeting Samsung’s 2nm node to reclaim market share in the Galaxy S27 series, following a projected decline to a 75% share in the Galaxy S26. However, this strategy faces a structural conflict of interest; if Samsung Foundry successfully improves its 2nm yields, the manufacturer may prioritize its own Exynos processors over Qualcomm silicon. Investors are now questioning whether Qualcomm's reliance on a primary competitor's manufacturing capabilities will provide enough stability to offset the total loss of the Apple account by 2027.
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