Rumor
Micron HBM4 market share forecast for 2026 lowered to 1% following sampling delays
Tuesday, February 10, 2026 at 11:05 PM
Updated market models suggest Micron's HBM4 market share for 2026 has been revised down to approximately 1% due to ongoing redesign issues and delays in the sampling schedule.
Context
Micron Technology is facing production delays for its next-generation HBM4 memory due to essential redesigns and speed upgrade issues. While recent reports from SemiAnalysis suggest Micron's share in Nvidia's HBM4 supply chain could fall to 0%, updated market models now forecast a modest 1% market share for the company in 2026. This shift pushes full-scale volume production back to 2027, following the submission of improved samples to key partners.
The overall impact on earnings is expected to be minimal, as Micron's growth in 2026 is primarily fueled by rising average selling prices in commodity DRAM and NAND. HBM is estimated to contribute only 11% of revenue and 8% of operating profit for the year, with commodity margins already exceeding those of specialized AI memory. Because SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics remain capacity-constrained, the tight supply environment limits competitive risks, framing the recent stock correction as a strategic buying opportunity for investors.
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