Rumor
Nvidia H200 supply to China forecasted at 400,000 to 500,000 units by local experts
Friday, December 12, 2025 at 03:27 AM
Industry reports from experts on Acecamp suggest that Nvidia's H200 AI chip supply for the Chinese market may be limited to 400,000 to 500,000 units this year. This supply forecast is significantly lower than previous estimates from Morgan Stanley and Bernstein, which projected 2 million and 1.5 million units respectively.
Context
Recent U.S. Department of Justice actions, part of "Operation Gatekeeper," have uncovered a significant smuggling network involving NVIDIA H100 and H200 GPUs destined for China. Between October 2024 and May 2025, an estimated $160 million worth of these high-performance chips were illicitly exported or attempted to be exported. Authorities have successfully seized over $50 million in GPUs and cash related to these operations, with arrests made in December 2025.
The smuggling schemes employed sophisticated methods, including the use of straw buyers, shell companies, and falsified paperwork. Notably, workers allegedly removed NVIDIA labels, rebranding the GPUs as "SANDKYAN" to evade detection, with shipments often routed through Hong Kong logistics firms. While social media reports suggest H200 units are already widely used in Chinese universities, mainstream verification remains limited. In response, NVIDIA is reportedly developing location-verification technology to combat illicit deployments, and customs checks are intensifying, highlighting the ongoing challenge of export controls and the high demand for advanced AI hardware in restricted markets.
Sources (8)
US Busts Network Smuggling Advanced Nvidia Chips ...Nvidia chips: Plots to send GPUs to China expose $160 ...U.S. Authorities Shut Down Major China-Linked AI Tech ...US Shuts Down Operation Smuggling Nvidia AI Chips ...Technology company CEOs caught smuggling Nvidia ...China tightens checks on Nvidia AI chips at major ports, FT ...Nvidia builds location verification tech that could help fight ...Should the US Sell Hopper Chips to China?
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