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Micron secures HBM4 orders as DRAM supply shortages are projected to persist through 2027
Sunday, March 8, 2026 at 09:49 AM
Analyst previews for Micron's FY2Q26 performance suggest a robust memory cycle with DRAM contract prices expected to surge 100% in 1Q26 and at least 30% in 2Q26. Micron has reportedly secured HBM4 orders with shipments beginning in March. Despite capacity expansions at Micron's Idaho fab, SK Hynix's M15X, and Samsung's P4L, wafer output is not expected to normalize until 2H27, potentially extending supply shortages as AI demand accounts for 75% of DRAM consumption by 2027. Long-term agreements (LTAs) for 3-5 years are currently under negotiation.
Context
Micron Technology has secured orders for its next-generation HBM4 memory, with volume shipments expected to begin in March 2026. This milestone comes as the memory industry enters a prolonged upcycle, with DRAM contract prices projected to surge 100% in 1Q26. Industry leaders Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have warned that supply shortages are likely to persist through 2027 due to limited cleanroom availability and the massive diversion of wafer capacity toward AI-specific high-bandwidth memory. By 2027, AI-related demand is forecast to account for over 75% of total DRAM demand. During the FQ1 2026 earnings call on December 17, 2025, Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra stated, "We have completed agreements on price and volume for our entire calendar 2026 HBM supply, including Micron's industry-leading HBM4." He further noted that the HBM total addressable market is now expected to reach $100 billion by 2028, reaching that milestone two years earlier than previous projections. This tightening supply environment is driving memory's share of AI server bill-of-materials from 8-9% in 2025 to an estimated 15% by 4Q26.
Sources (7)
Micron Ships HBM4 to Key Customers to Power Next-Gen AI Platforms - Investor Relationsmu-20250828Samsung and SK Hynix warn memory chip crunch to continue until 2027HBM Leads The Way To Defect-Free BumpsHBM roadmaps for Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix: To HBM4 and beyond | Tom's HardwareSamsung Electronics Co Ltd GDR - Reg S Earnings Call TranscriptsSamsung shares rise as DRAM demand outpaces supply By Investing.com
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