News
HBM4 to drive market growth as manufacturers scale capacity for 2026
Sunday, December 21, 2025 at 12:52 AM
TrendForce reports that the HBM market will shift significantly toward HBM4 by 2026. Samsung and SK hynix are projected to reach monthly HBM wafer outputs of 150k each by late 2025, with SK hynix expanding to 200k and Micron to 100k by late 2026. NVIDIA and AMD are expected to double HBM capacity per GPU to 288GB using 12-Hi HBM3E by late 2025 before transitioning to HBM4 in 2026. HBM pricing is forecasted to rise to $1.80 per gigabit in 2025.
Context
The AI-driven demand for High Bandwidth Memory is entering a critical scaling phase as SK Hynix and Micron aggressively pivot their production strategies. While Samsung plans to maintain a monthly output of 150k wafers through 2026, SK Hynix is projected to lead the market by scaling to 200k wafers, dedicating nearly all new DRAM capacity to HBM. This supply surge is timed to meet a massive specification jump from Nvidia and AMD, which are doubling flagship GPU memory capacity to 288GB by late 2025.
The transition to HBM4 in 2026 marks a pivotal shift toward customized, high-speed modules essential for next-generation AI models. For investors, the immediate upside is reflected in pricing; the average selling price is forecasted to surge 21% to $1.80 per Gigabit in 2025, driven by the mass production of complex 12-Hi HBM3E modules. This "all-in" commitment from manufacturers, paired with rising ASPs, signals a lucrative but capital-intensive cycle where SK Hynix and Micron currently show the most aggressive expansion rates to capture early market share.
Related Companies
Nvidia
NVDA
AMD
AMD