TSMC poised for strong growth as AI drives semiconductor market to $1 trillion by 2026, analysts predict limited impact from US tariffs

Analysts forecast that new US tariffs will have a limited impact on the Taiwanese stock market, as AI demand is expected to drive global semiconductor sales to a record $1 trillion by 2026. TSMC is positioned to benefit significantly from this trend, with its USD-denominated revenue projected to increase by nearly 30% by 2026, solidifying its position as a leading foundry. Industry forecasts from WSTS and Omdia anticipate over 20% growth in semiconductor sales in 2025, continuing through 2026. Memory and logic ICs, driven by strong data center server demand and rising memory prices, are expected to be the main growth drivers. GlobalWafers also foresees a strong year for semiconductors in 2026, with AI remaining a key driver. Unprecedented shortages and price increases are noted in the memory market, particularly for DRAM and NAND flash, with significant price surges predicted for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. TSMC is leveraging its leadership in logic process technology and advanced packaging to capture opportunities in AI GPUs and ASICs, with strong business growth anticipated through 2026, surpassing the overall wafer manufacturing industry growth. IDC projects TSMC to capture 73% of the global semiconductor foundry market by 2026.