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Nomura raises SK hynix profit forecasts as DRAM and NAND prices expected to surge 50% in Q2
Tuesday, March 24, 2026 at 07:16 AM
Nomura has revised its memory market outlook, projecting that second-quarter price increases for commodity DRAM and NAND will reach 51% and 50% respectively, significantly outpacing earlier forecasts. Driven by these price surges, the firm raised its 2026 and 2027 operating profit estimates for SK hynix by over 36%, anticipating operating margins to reach 74%.
Context
Nomura has significantly raised its financial outlook for SK hynix, projecting a massive surge in memory pricing for Q2 2026. Analysts now expect commodity DRAM prices to rise 51% QoQ and NAND to increase 50% QoQ, dwarfing previous estimates of +6% and +20% respectively. This price explosion is driven by a severe supply-demand imbalance as AI-related demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) cannibalizes traditional production capacity, shifting pricing power firmly toward suppliers. In its latest comment, the Nomura analyst team stated: "As AI investment and server cluster deployments by tech giants intensify, pricing power is comprehensively shifting towards suppliers."
Consequently, Nomura revised SK hynix’s 2026 operating profit forecast upward by 36% to KRW 256 trillion (~$175.3 billion), with 2027 figures expected to reach KRW 365 trillion. Operating margins are projected to hit a staggering 74% as the firm capitalizes on the "memory super cycle." While SK hynix reported record results in FY2025 with KRW 47.2 trillion in operating profit, these new projections suggest a monumental leap in profitability. Nomura maintains that meaningful supply increases are unlikely until 2028 due to long lead times for cleanroom expansion and advanced process upgrades.
Sources (7)
SK hynix Posts Record Annual Financial Results in 2025SK Hynix targets 70% DRAM profit margin amid supply crunchSamsung Electronics and SK Hynix: Not Time to Sell YetSK Hynix undervalued as HBM pricing tightens into 2026, MS bumps target By Investing.comDespite Memory Boom, Samsung and SK Hynix Stock Prices ...Samsung and SK hynix are scaling back their DRAM expansion plans: Is there concern about potential overcapacity? | igor´sLABHBM Not Dancing Solo! "Memory Super Cycle" to Last Until 2027; Nomura: Meaningful Supply Increases Not Expected Until 2028 - Tiger Brokers
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