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Samsung Securities analyst Jong-wook Lee views memory stock decline as sentiment correction rather than cyclical peak
Monday, March 30, 2026 at 02:41 AM
Samsung Securities analyst Jong-wook Lee addressed the decline in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix stock prices, citing a narrowing premium of DRAM spot prices over contract prices as a primary market concern. While DRAM price momentum is expected to moderate starting in 3Q 2026, the analyst argues this is a sentiment-driven correction rather than a cyclical peak. The report highlights that supply-side response has lagged historical cycles by approximately one year, likely leading to a prolonged profit plateau rather than a sharp decline. Additionally, concerns regarding natural gas supply are dismissed as a minor cost inflation issue that does not impact production capacity or yield.
Context
Following a sharp decline in memory stock prices on March 30, 2026, Samsung Securities analyst Jong-wook Lee characterized the market movement as a sentiment-driven correction rather than a cyclical peak. Shares of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell 3.9% and 5.6% respectively as DDR5 16G spot price premiums narrowed from 30% to 20%. This volatility is exacerbated by a global helium shortage following geopolitical disruptions in Qatar, which has doubled prices for the critical gas and forced South Korean fabs to ration supplies. Despite these headwinds, Lee maintains a positive outlook on the AI-driven demand cycle.
Addressing investor anxiety, Jong-wook Lee stated: "We believe this is a correction, not a peak-out. The market narrative will shift from the magnitude of DRAM price increases to the sustainability of DRAM prices." He argued that current supply-side responses are lagging a full year behind previous cycles, suggesting earnings will follow a broad plateau rather than a sharp drop. While OpenAI recently moderated its 2030 infrastructure spend to $600 billion, the analyst believes the primary indicators for a true peak remain tied to the long-term business trajectories of major ISPs and AI labs, which still show significant demand upside.
Sources (15)
거침없었던 한미일 반도체株 급제동 - 매일경제실적 발표 다음 날 목표가 줄상향…삼성전자 16곳·하이닉스 ...An Invisible Bottleneck: A Helium Shortage Threatens the Chip Industry - The New York TimesTech stocks: Qatar attack, semiconductor supply chain, LNG, helium
AI memory boom squeezes legacy DRAM supply, pushing prices higher | S&P Global
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000660
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005930