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Samsung expected to expand memory wafer capacity significantly by 2028
Wednesday, February 25, 2026 at 09:51 AM
Morgan Stanley has updated its earnings forecasts for Samsung, increasing short-term estimates but lowering the 2028 outlook due to anticipated large-scale memory wafer capacity expansions that may lead to lower average selling prices.
Context
Morgan Stanley has sharply revised its financial outlook for Samsung Electronics, forecasting a near-term earnings explosion followed by a strategic correction. The bank raised its 2026 earnings per share (EPS) forecast by 23% and its 2027 estimate by 16%, while cutting the 2028 forecast by 9%. This shift marks the expected transition from an AI-driven "super cycle" to a phase of aggressive global supply expansion.
The projected 2028 earnings dip is tied to expectations that Samsung will launch large-scale wafer capacity additions that year, potentially depressing memory average selling prices (ASPs). Despite the long-term caution, the firm maintains a target price of 248,000 KRW, betting that current structural shortages in DRAM and HBM will yield record-breaking profitability through 2027 before the massive influx of new capacity rebalances the market.
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