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ASML projects revenue recovery from TSMC by 2026 following 2024 downturn

Sunday, March 1, 2026 at 08:10 AM

ASML experienced a peak in revenue from TSMC at €8.8 billion in 2023, followed by a 47% decline in 2024. Projections suggest a recovery in revenue from TSMC by 2026, though levels may remain slightly below the 2023 peak. Currently, ASML's top four customers represent 61% of its total revenue.

Context

ASML is signaling a significant revenue recovery following a volatile period with its largest client, TSMC. After reaching a record €8.8 billion in revenue from the Taiwanese foundry in 2023, contributions plummeted by 47% in 2024. This decline reflects broader semiconductor cyclicality and shifts in capital expenditure timing. However, the outlook is improving as TSMC prepares for next-generation capacity expansion. ASML projects a return to growth that could see revenue from the chipmaker regain substantial momentum by 2026. The recovery is supported by a robust order backlog, with ASML identifying a path toward nearly €39 billion in total revenue. While revenue from TSMC remains 11% below its previous peak, the transition to 2nm nodes and High-NA EUV technology is expected to drive high-margin sales. ASML has also diversified its base; four major clients now contribute over 10% of sales each, collectively accounting for 61% of total revenue. This diversification stabilizes the firm as the industry prepares for a massive AI-driven hardware cycle.

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