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Samsung management forecasts persistent eSSD shortages through 2027 and higher HBM3E pricing in 2026
Thursday, March 5, 2026 at 12:38 PM
Samsung management shared a bullish outlook at the JPM Korea Conference, forecasting that eSSD NAND shortages will persist through 2027 due to limited CapEx for NAND compared to DRAM. The company noted that limited cleanroom space at the P4 fab is slowing supply additions, making technology migration the primary driver of bit growth. Additionally, construction on the P5 fab has started with a three-year timeline to output, and management expects HBM3E pricing in 2026 to exceed 2025 levels, contrary to market expectations of price declines.
Context
At the JP Morgan Korea Conference on February 20, 2025, Samsung Electronics management issued a significantly more bullish outlook for the memory market than current sell-side consensus. The company expects the eSSD (enterprise Solid State Drive) supply shortage to persist through 2027, driven by NAND bit demand growth that is significantly outpacing supply. This imbalance is exacerbated by a strategic concentration of capital expenditure on DRAM over NAND and limited cleanroom space at the P4 facility. While construction on the P5 fab has commenced, management noted that it will take approximately three years before wafer output begins.
Contradicting analyst expectations of a price correction, Samsung projected that HBM3E pricing in 2026 will actually exceed 2025 levels. This pricing power stems from a severe supply-demand gap where technology migration, rather than new capacity, remains the primary driver of bit growth. Samsung's executive vice president of memory, Kim Jae-june, previously reinforced this tight environment, stating during an earnings call that while they have significantly expanded HBM production, "customer demand has already outpaced supply." These factors suggest a prolonged high-margin cycle for AI-related memory through the next two years.
Sources (12)
Events │ Investor Relations │ Samsung Global | Samsung SDS Q4 2024 Earnings Conference CallSamsung reportedly exits 2D NAND, converts Hwaseong Line 12 to 1c DRAM end fab
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