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Micron begins volume shipments of HBM4 to Nvidia and forecasts DRAM upcycle through 1H27
Wednesday, March 18, 2026 at 08:38 PM
Micron reported strong FY2Q26 results with revenue of $23.9 billion and began volume shipments of HBM4 to Nvidia in 1Q26. Despite market concerns over aggressive CapEx and capacity expansion, the DRAM upcycle is expected to extend through 1H27, driven by high demand for AI server memory. AI-related memory (HBM and LPDDR5X) is projected to account for 50% of total DRAM wafer demand in 2026, with demand potentially doubling in 2027 as the industry transitions to 1TB HBM4E.
Context
On March 19, 2026, Micron reported a massive fiscal 2Q26 beat with revenue of $23.9 billion, driven by the transition to AI-centric memory. The company confirmed it has begun volume shipments of HBM4 to Nvidia as of 1Q26, noting that yield maturation for the next-generation stack is progressing faster than its predecessor. This milestone positions Micron to challenge SK Hynix and Samsung for leadership in the high-margin AI supply chain. Management signaled a durable DRAM upcycle extending through 1H27, supported by HBM4's high wafer consumption and a limited supply of new capacity until late 2027.
While the stock saw a 4% after-hours dip due to concerns over aggressive CAPEX expansion, analysts remain bullish, with BofA and GF Securities raising price targets toward $500–$623. The growth is underpinned by shifting 'tokenomics' where AI server memory is expected to account for 50% of total DRAM demand by 2026. During the earnings call, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra reportedly emphasized that the company expects "a strong ramp of HBM throughout calendar 2026" and aims to deliver the best HBM4 products across power and performance metrics. This outlook suggests that even as conventional DRAM prices rise over 50% sequentially, Micron still has headroom for further hikes relative to its Korean peers.
Sources (8)
Super Micro Computer, Inc. - Financials - Quarterly Results
Micron Breaks Ground on New HBM Advanced Packaging Facility in Singapore | Micron TechnologyMemory Mania: How a Once-in-Four-Decades Shortage Is Fueling a Memory Boom BofA raises Micron stock price target on durable memory cycle outlook By Investing.comMicron warns of inventory drag outside datacentersHBM3E vs HBM4 Comparison: Bandwidth, Capacity, Power & AI ...The Memory Market Is Being Restructured Around NVIDIALeading Indicators of When RAM and NVMe Supply Will Match Demand
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