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U.S. brokerages slash 2025 global smartphone shipment forecasts by 15 percent amid rising memory costs
Tuesday, March 24, 2026 at 12:56 AM
Major U.S. brokerages have revised their 2025 global smartphone shipment forecasts downward by 15% to 1.1 billion units. The revisions indicate a 2% decline for Apple and a significant 16% drop for Android manufacturers. This slowdown is primarily attributed to rising memory component costs being passed on to consumers, which is expected to suppress replacement demand.
Context
Major U.S. brokerages, including Morgan Stanley, have slashed their 2026 global smartphone shipment forecasts by 15%, lowering the outlook to 1.1 billion units. This revision marks a sharp reversal from previous growth expectations, driven by a global memory shortage that has caused DRAM and NAND flash prices to surge. Analysts expect the bill-of-materials (BOM) for smartphones to rise by as much as 25% in 2026, forcing manufacturers to pass these costs on to consumers through higher retail prices.
While the broader market faces double-digit declines, Apple is projected to remain relatively resilient with a modest 2% shipment drop, compared to a steeper 16% decline for the Android camp. The price hikes are expected to hit the entry-level and mid-range segments hardest, as rising component costs make sub-$500 devices increasingly nonviable. Investors should monitor first-half 2026 pricing strategies as vendors attempt to protect margins against the steepest device shipment contraction in over a decade.
Sources (8)
Chip Crunch to Curb Smartphone Output in 2026, Researcher Says - BloombergGartner Says Surging Memory Costs Will Reduce Global PC and Smartphone Shipments in 20262026 Smartphone Shipment Forecasts Revised Down as Memory Shortage Drives BoM Costs UpWorldwide Smartphone Market to Grow 1.5% in 2025, Boosted by Record Apple Shipments in 2025 of 247.4 Million Units and 6.1% YoY Growth, according to IDCRising Memory and CPU Prices Could Push Mainstream Notebook Prices Up by Nearly 40%, Says TrendForceIDC - Global Memory Shortage Crisis: Market Analysis and the Potential Impact on the Smartphone and PC Markets in 2026 <Research>M Stanley Cuts 2026 Global Smartphone ...Significant increase in memory prices makes smartphones more expensive, DRAM and NAND account for a large share of costs | igor´sLAB
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