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Phison CEO warns of structural DRAM and NAND shortages extending beyond 2030
Wednesday, February 11, 2026 at 07:15 AM
The CEO of Phison has warned that a structural shift in the semiconductor industry is likely to lead to persistent DRAM and NAND flash memory shortages extending past 2030, potentially impacting the supply chain for various hardware sectors.
Context
Phison CEO K.S. Pua warns that structural shortages in DRAM and NAND flash, driven by the "unstoppable" demand for AI, could persist until 2030. As Nvidia scales its next-generation Vera Rubin GPUs, a single unit may require over 20TB of storage, potentially consuming 20% of global NAND capacity. This extreme imbalance has granted unprecedented leverage to suppliers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, who are reportedly demanding three-year cash prepayments to secure supply—a requirement nearly unheard of in the semiconductor industry.
This scarcity is expected to trigger a massive industry shakeout through 2026, as high memory costs force lower-margin smartphone and PC makers toward bankruptcy or market exit. While Samsung and Micron are expanding capacity, the two-year lead time for new fabs means supply growth will remain in the single digits while AI inference needs explode. Phison is countering this by developing solutions like aiDAPTIV+ to lower entry costs for AI PCs, though the broader market remains gripped by a historic seller’s market that could reduce global smartphone production by up to 250 million units.
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