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Morgan Stanley forecasts Nvidia will contribute 21% of TSMC revenue followed by Apple and Broadcom
Tuesday, February 17, 2026 at 12:00 AM
Morgan Stanley projections indicate that Nvidia will become TSMC's largest customer by revenue share at 21%, followed by a group of major chip designers including Apple, Broadcom, AMD, Qualcomm, Intel, and MediaTek.
Context
A significant shift in the semiconductor supply chain has occurred as Nvidia is forecast to become TSMC's largest customer, surpassing Apple for the first time. Morgan Stanley analysts and industry reports indicate that Nvidia will contribute approximately 21% of TSMC's total revenue, driven by the massive infrastructure buildout for AI. This marks a fundamental transition from the mobile-dominated era to an AI-centric manufacturing landscape. For over a decade, Apple served as the 'anchor tenant' for TSMC, often accounting for over 20% of revenue and funding the initial yield curves for new process nodes. In the new hierarchy, Apple is expected to follow at 17-20%, with Broadcom, AMD, Qualcomm, Intel, and MediaTek rounding out the top tier of customers. The transition is accelerated by Nvidia booking more than half of TSMC's advanced CoWoS packaging capacity through 2026-2027 to support its Blackwell and future GPU architectures.
Sources (7)
TSMC August 2025 Revenue ReportNvidia set to supplant Apple as TSMC's largest customer - CNBCTSMC expands CoWoS capacity with Nvidia booking over half for 2026-27Apple-TSMC: The Partnership That Built Modern Semiconductors[Taiwan Chip News] Nvidia Surpasses Apple to Become TSMC's Largest Customer Amid AI Boom - The Asia Business DailyMarket movers: TSMC, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Boston Scientific…Prediction: Taiwan Semiconductor Will Be Worth More Than Apple by 2030 - The Globe and Mail
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