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GF Securities forecasts structural DRAM shortage through 2028 driven by NVIDIA Rubin Ultra and AI infrastructure

Tuesday, March 31, 2026 at 06:55 AM

GF Securities analyst report indicates the memory market will remain tight through 2028, driven by AI server demand accounting for 37% of DRAM demand. While spot prices have pulled back due to channel inventory unwinding, contract prices remain strong. Major memory manufacturers are securing long-term agreements (LTAs) with floor prices significantly above current levels. The report highlights that Nvidia's Rubin Ultra will shift to 1TB HBM and notes that Samsung and Google have reached a 2028 LTA. Conversely, the DDR4 cycle has peaked as manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix delay end-of-life timelines while demand shifts to DDR5.

Context

As of March 2026, GF Securities has issued a high-conviction forecast that the DRAM market will remain in a structural shortage through 2028. This tightening is primarily driven by the upcoming NVIDIA Rubin Ultra platform transition, which shifts to 1TB HBM and higher-capacity LPDDR, alongside aggressive infrastructure scaling by Google. Pure AI server demand is projected to account for 37% of total DRAM demand in 2026, with incremental demand growth exceeding 40% annually—far outstripping the 15% supply growth expected from technology migrations. In a recent industry report, GF Securities noted, "It’s too early to be pessimistic," dismissing recent spot price volatility as a temporary correction of elevated premiums. Key market leaders Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron are reportedly securing long-term agreements (LTAs) with floor prices for 2027 that are more than 25% above Q2 2026 levels. While DDR5 pricing remains robust, the DDR4 cycle has likely peaked as customers accelerate migration to higher-performance standards to meet the compute-intensive requirements of next-generation AI factories.