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Microsoft Maia 300 CoWoS capacity forecast for 2026 lowered to 5k units
Tuesday, December 23, 2025 at 08:22 AM
Morgan Stanley has revised its forecast for Microsoft's Maia 300 chip, projecting CoWoS packaging capacity to reach only 5,000 units by 2026, a significant reduction from the previous estimate of 20,000 units.
Context
Morgan Stanley has sharply revised its 2026 capacity forecast for Microsoft’s upcoming Maia 300 AI accelerator. Analysts now project that CoWoS capacity for the chip will end at just 5,000 units in 2026, a significant reduction from the previous expectation of 20,000 units. This downward adjustment suggests a much more conservative initial production ramp for the next-generation silicon than previously anticipated by the market.
This development is a key headwind for Marvell, which serves as the primary design partner for the Maia 300 project. The revised timeline stems from Microsoft's decision to upgrade the chip's specifications to an ambitious 2nm process architecture utilizing HBM4 memory. While these technical enhancements are intended to increase the chip's long-term competitiveness, they have effectively pushed the mass production window into the final quarter of 2026. For investors, this shift moves a significant portion of the anticipated revenue contribution from the Maia program further into the 2027 calendar year.
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