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TrendForce Lowers 2026 IT Device Shipment Forecasts But Still Projects Significant DRAM Shortage Due to Server Demand
Sunday, November 30, 2025 at 09:21 AM
TrendForce has revised downward its 2026 shipment forecast for game consoles to 34.2 million units (from 35.8M) and lowered overall IT device forecasts, citing rising memory costs and supply prioritization for servers. Despite the B2C segment's reduction, the firm projects a -8.5% DRAM supply shortage in 2026, driven by robust server demand, which is expected to account for 66% of the DRAM market by 2026.
Context
According to a new TrendForce forecast, rising memory prices are squeezing consumer electronics, prompting a cut in 2026 game console shipment projections from 35.8 million to 34.2 million units. This is driven by soaring component costs for manufacturers like Sony, with memory expected to rise ~16% between Q1 2025 and Q3 2026. By late 2026, memory could account for a staggering 23–42% of a console's total cost, forcing companies to scale back promotions and accept lower sales volumes.
Despite this downturn in consumer devices, the overall DRAM market is projected to face a significant -8.5% supply shortage in 2026. The weakness in consumer demand is being more than offset by voracious demand from the AI server sector. Memory suppliers are prioritizing this high-margin market, with server DRAM’s share of total supply expected to surge from 46% in 2024 to 66% in 2026, ensuring a tight market and continued pricing power for memory producers.
Sources (12)
Rising Memory Prices Weigh on Consumer Markets; 2026 ...TrendForce: 2026 Shipment Forecasts for 3 Major ...Nick Florous, Ph.D.'s PostWhen Will RAM Prices Drop? Global Memory Market ...Memory Price Surge Cuts Console ForecastDRAM Research Reports | TrendForceDRAM Price TrendsPC and smartphone markets forecast to shrink in 2026 due ...
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