Rumor
Speculation that Broadcom's AI ASIC for ByteDance will not face issues if H200 is unaffected
Tuesday, December 23, 2025 at 09:57 PM
The tweet speculates that if the H200 is not facing issues, then Broadcom's AI ASIC for ByteDance should also be fine, implying this is not factored into the market.
Context
Broadcom investors are monitoring a major U.S. export policy shift that could revive its custom silicon partnership with ByteDance. Following a December 2025 decision to allow NVIDIA to ship H200 chips to China with a 25% transactional fee, speculation is rising that Broadcom’s 5nm AI ASIC project is no longer at risk. This new framework suggests high-end hardware can move forward if vendors comply with federal licensing and revenue-sharing tolls, potentially removing the regulatory ceiling that previously stalled the deal.
The project’s revival would align with ByteDance's planned $22.8 billion AI investment for 2026. While Broadcom shares recently saw volatility, the company holds a massive $73 billion AI backlog. If the H200 waiver extends to custom silicon, it could recover a previously stalled $2 billion to $3 billion revenue opportunity. With NVIDIA deliveries starting in early 2026, the market is beginning to price in a similar recovery for Broadcom’s specialized China business.
Sources (1)
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