Rumor
ABF substrate shortage expected to intensify through 2027 amid AI chip demand
Tuesday, February 17, 2026 at 10:05 PM
Analysts project a significant shortage in ABF substrates through 2027 due to demand from NVIDIA's Rubin platform and general AI chip growth. Goldman Sachs estimates substrate supply gaps reaching 40% by 2028. Major manufacturers like Unimicron, Kinsus, and Zhen Ding are expected to benefit from rising prices, as new fab expansions require at least two years to come online. Zhen Ding is specifically planning $50 billion TWD in CapEx through 2026 for new facilities in China and Thailand to capture high-end AI demand.
Context
The ABF substrate market is entering a multi-year supply squeeze as AI semiconductor demand outpaces production capacity. Industry analysts and Goldman Sachs project the shortage will intensify from 10% this year to 40% by 2028, with prices expected to climb through late 2027. This imbalance is driven by a 50% annual growth rate in AI chip production, requiring 2.5x to 4x more substrate per unit for high-end GPU and ASIC architectures.
Leading suppliers like Unimicron, Kinsus, and Nan Ya PCB face a minimum two-year lag for capacity expansion, further tightening the market as Nvidia’s next-generation Rubin platform ramps up. While Unimicron maintains a technical lead, Zhen Ding Technology is emerging as a value "dark horse" with aggressive $50 billion TWD capex plans through 2026. With TSMC and Micron signaling strong sector tailwinds, the substrate bottleneck remains a critical risk factor for the global AI supply chain.
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