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Bernstein releases modeling on NAND average selling prices
Thursday, January 15, 2026 at 10:40 PM
Analysis of Bernstein's modeling regarding NAND average selling prices (ASP).
Context
Bernstein has aggressively raised its price target for SanDisk to $580, citing an "unprecedented storage supercycle" fueled by AI infrastructure. Analysts indicate that NVIDIA’s latest architecture will require 16 TB of SSDs per GPU—a fivefold increase in NAND demand. This shift transforms storage from passive back-ups into an active "context layer" essential for high-speed GPU utilization, creating a structural supply-demand mismatch that is expected to persist through the end of the decade.
To capitalize on this shortage, SanDisk is projected to double high-capacity NAND prices in Q1 2026. Bernstein has upwardly revised its average selling price modeling through 2027, forecasting a significant gross margin expansion to 67.6%. Investors are now focused on the January 29 earnings report, where the company is expected to post a market-beating $3.79 earnings per share as industrial capacity remains extremely constrained.
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