Rumor
Forecast of HBM competitive parity by 2028, challenging SK Hynix's lead.
Friday, November 28, 2025 at 02:50 AM
Industry observers project that Samsung Electronics and Micron will overcome HBM technological barriers by 2028, leading to shared profits and market positioning similar to SK Hynix. If all major manufacturers meet Nvidia's HBM requirements, Samsung's superior capacity is expected to give it a significant market advantage.
Context
SK Hynix’s current stranglehold on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) faces a countdown. According to industry analysts, by around 2028, both Samsung Electronics and Micron are expected to overcome HBM technological barriers and achieve profits similar to SK Hynix. This would erode the significant technology lead and price premium SK Hynix held in 2025, especially as competitors close the gap in meeting key customer Nvidia's requirements.
The competitive landscape is set to shift significantly sooner. Samsung is aggressively ramping up its production capacity, aiming to boost its 1c DRAM output—the node used for HBM4—to approximately 150,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026. This massive capacity could give Samsung an advantageous position once its technology is qualified by Nvidia, with final qualification anticipated in early 2026. Meanwhile, Micron is also targeting HBM4 mass production in 2026, with a customized HBM4E version planned for 2027-2028. For investors, this signals a move toward a more balanced supplier market, likely leading to margin compression for SK Hynix and a tempering of the HBM scarcity premium post-2026.
Sources (14)
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Related Companies
Nvidia
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SK Hynix
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Micron
MU
Samsung Electronics
005930